I was talking with my assistant on Monday and she had some very good news for me. The new website (www.FloridaDevelopmentNews.com) we informally launched two weeks ago had 40 unique hits last week and the average time spent on the site was over 20 minutes per visitor. I have to say, I am aiming for much larger numbers in the future but for right now I am pleased as punch thank you very much.
We plan to formally launch the website next week and many more "unique visitors" I hope will find the site and value the content. The newsletter is not doing to shabby either with over 200 subscribers added in the last month. If you would like to subscribe, email editor@FloridaDevelopmentNews.com and put subscribe in the subject line.
I am working with a new group of authors/writers for our next publishing date on October 1st. I have to say the topics and depth of knowledge of the writers is truly outstanding and I think readers will be very pleased. As always, we are also on the hunt for new ideas both for the website and newsletter. Topic ideas from our readers are also valued and sought. The new site has every article published in the newsletter and links to development specific articles in papers around Florida and the New York Times. We also have an article originally published in an Urban Land Institute magazine on the future trends of the development industry. There is a link on the front page and I encourage you to check it out.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Monday, August 3, 2009
Florida Land Development Newsletter
I was driving to a meeting about two months ago and I was thinking about some of the issues that face the development community today. As I started to research Senate Bill 360 and new water quality rules being considered by FDEP I found very little in term of news I could use. Then I thought "I wish there was a source for the development community to turn when it wanted to know more about a certain issue". About 30 seconds later it hit me - I should call on my developer friends, bankers, consultants and planners to see if I could pull together a handful of articles that would be informative and useful. So I emailed and called a few friends with specific industry knowledge and asked them to write something.
The end result is the new Florida Land Development Newsletter. The purpose of the newsletter is to inform, not to sell anything or anyone. My original intent was to publish it about once per year or as issues presented themselves. We put out a press release informing the public of the newsletter and I was just about run over with requests to send out copies. I was equally surprised when several professionals asked if they could submit content on issues they were dealing with in their work. It was not to much after the emails started pouring in that I thought maybe we needed a website to support the newsletter and publish headlines from around the state on a regular basis.
The new website is www.FloridaDevelopmentNews.com and we are still working on the content and structure. Our goal is to have enough writers/contributors that we can publish at least one new 800 word article per week. Since a decent article may take a week or two to research and develop copy it will take a while before we can publish at that rate. Regardless, I keep an eye out for headlines around the state that impact development and we plan to keep those fresh every other day or so.
It has taken a lot of work to get from that idea on my way to a meeting to a tangible newsletter and website. If you would like to subscribe, have an idea or want to know more a topic, email me at editor@FloridaDevelopmentNews.com and I will see what we can do. If you would like to download a copy of this quarter's newsletter, just go to the website and there is a link in the center of the page.
I was driving to a meeting about two months ago and I was thinking about some of the issues that face the development community today. As I started to research Senate Bill 360 and new water quality rules being considered by FDEP I found very little in term of news I could use. Then I thought "I wish there was a source for the development community to turn when it wanted to know more about a certain issue". About 30 seconds later it hit me - I should call on my developer friends, bankers, consultants and planners to see if I could pull together a handful of articles that would be informative and useful. So I emailed and called a few friends with specific industry knowledge and asked them to write something.
The end result is the new Florida Land Development Newsletter. The purpose of the newsletter is to inform, not to sell anything or anyone. My original intent was to publish it about once per year or as issues presented themselves. We put out a press release informing the public of the newsletter and I was just about run over with requests to send out copies. I was equally surprised when several professionals asked if they could submit content on issues they were dealing with in their work. It was not to much after the emails started pouring in that I thought maybe we needed a website to support the newsletter and publish headlines from around the state on a regular basis.
The new website is www.FloridaDevelopmentNews.com and we are still working on the content and structure. Our goal is to have enough writers/contributors that we can publish at least one new 800 word article per week. Since a decent article may take a week or two to research and develop copy it will take a while before we can publish at that rate. Regardless, I keep an eye out for headlines around the state that impact development and we plan to keep those fresh every other day or so.
It has taken a lot of work to get from that idea on my way to a meeting to a tangible newsletter and website. If you would like to subscribe, have an idea or want to know more a topic, email me at editor@FloridaDevelopmentNews.com and I will see what we can do. If you would like to download a copy of this quarter's newsletter, just go to the website and there is a link in the center of the page.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Green Shoots in My Lawn
I have been reading a lot about green shoots in the economy lately. Just like Bigfoot, there are those that have "seen" it/them and there are others that insist it/they do not exist. I think this is one of those glass half empty, glass half full debates. The truth is it depends upon your point of view and context. My business is up 300% over last year (really). Is that a green shoot? What about the new restaurant that opened down the street from my office. Is that a green shoot?
In each case above it depends on how you look at the numbers. I had two project reviews "walk in the door" in April yet I had been working on getting that work since last year. So in that case, I would not call it a sign of the economy picking up. The new restaurant down the street (which has excellent mexican food by the way) is a good sign, however, there are three existing restaurants that have gone out of business since January 2009. I am honestly not trying to spin the numbers or convince you of something where I am "right" and you are "wrong".
Personally, I will see and believe in green shoots when I start to see new non-construction jobs opening up. Don't get me wrong, construction is a great field and traditionally pays very well. But, when the job is finished, so are you. Honestly, I am just as confused as anyone when it comes to our economy. I see the stock market up while on the same day unemployment reaches a 26 year high. I hear the credit crunch is behinds us yet I cannot refinance a land loan that I have. I see great sales in the Sunday paper but few consumers actually buying. The canary in the coal mine is JOBS. Anything else I see on the positive side is a result of the economic stimulus package or temporary construction work. The stimulus package is really fertilizer designed to give us a quick boost. When the "food" is gone we may find a very brown lawn.
We are in an economic winter here. It will be a while before the spring is here and green shoots appear in my economic lawn. Rest assured they (green shoots) will come and we will probably miss the first few signs of new real growth.
On the positive side, I am seeing a lot of assets re-priced and being liquidated in the market place. While it is painful to be the one selling your investments at steep discounts it does put money in to the hand of people that will generally spend it in the economy (versus saving it). The last thing I want to leave you with is many segments of our society are in flux and some say we need to adjust to the "new normal".
While I agree some thing's have changed forever (very easy credit to name one) life will go on. This is also an excellent opportunity for most of us that have spent much of the last 30 years taking advice from "experts" that really knew what was going on. The playing field has been leveled and you and I now have a chance to learn in real-time along with these former experts about what the new normal will look like. I know, not much to brag about but it is nice for the little guy to know just as much as the big boys for a change even if what we collectively know is "not much".
In each case above it depends on how you look at the numbers. I had two project reviews "walk in the door" in April yet I had been working on getting that work since last year. So in that case, I would not call it a sign of the economy picking up. The new restaurant down the street (which has excellent mexican food by the way) is a good sign, however, there are three existing restaurants that have gone out of business since January 2009. I am honestly not trying to spin the numbers or convince you of something where I am "right" and you are "wrong".
Personally, I will see and believe in green shoots when I start to see new non-construction jobs opening up. Don't get me wrong, construction is a great field and traditionally pays very well. But, when the job is finished, so are you. Honestly, I am just as confused as anyone when it comes to our economy. I see the stock market up while on the same day unemployment reaches a 26 year high. I hear the credit crunch is behinds us yet I cannot refinance a land loan that I have. I see great sales in the Sunday paper but few consumers actually buying. The canary in the coal mine is JOBS. Anything else I see on the positive side is a result of the economic stimulus package or temporary construction work. The stimulus package is really fertilizer designed to give us a quick boost. When the "food" is gone we may find a very brown lawn.
We are in an economic winter here. It will be a while before the spring is here and green shoots appear in my economic lawn. Rest assured they (green shoots) will come and we will probably miss the first few signs of new real growth.
On the positive side, I am seeing a lot of assets re-priced and being liquidated in the market place. While it is painful to be the one selling your investments at steep discounts it does put money in to the hand of people that will generally spend it in the economy (versus saving it). The last thing I want to leave you with is many segments of our society are in flux and some say we need to adjust to the "new normal".
While I agree some thing's have changed forever (very easy credit to name one) life will go on. This is also an excellent opportunity for most of us that have spent much of the last 30 years taking advice from "experts" that really knew what was going on. The playing field has been leveled and you and I now have a chance to learn in real-time along with these former experts about what the new normal will look like. I know, not much to brag about but it is nice for the little guy to know just as much as the big boys for a change even if what we collectively know is "not much".
Monday, June 15, 2009
Repost: Gold Up, Dollar Down, Inflation out the Wazoo!
I was speaking with a friend recently and a blog that I wrote back in January of 2008 came up in conversation. I decided to re-post it since it is quite relevant to what is happening currently.
What the heck is the Fed Chair thinking? I know, I know, keep the country out of a recession. Yeah, right, like that is going to happen. The good news is my gold stock is way up. The bad news is so is my Canadian bacon.
This country is in so much trouble from the Cheap Credit Party that the only real solution is to turn on the printing presses and print our way out of "real" debt. I knew the hang-over (from that credit party) was going to hurt but man! Now to add insult to injury my savings is worth a lot less this year than it was in just 2005.Thanks Federal Reserve Geniuses. I appreciate being penalized for actually (shock and awe) having a savings account instead of being 10 bazillion in debt.
Don't get me wrong I have a mortgage just like everyone else but I did not go out and buy 10 Miami condos on margin to rack up my debt. The only silver lining is our real estate is now comparatively cheap to foreign investors and tourists.Inflation is now getting ready to leave the earth's orbit ala 1970's style. I can't wait to order my first $100 cup of coffee. Okay, enough complaining and feeling sorry for my country, now on to what are we going to do from here.
The only way I know how to preserve buying power (wealth) is to own hard assets such as gold, real estate or some other object that does not deteriorate over time. Gold is sky high because the dollar is in the toilet not because it has "gone up in value". The price of gold has gone up, not the value. If you don't believe me check out the price of gold in Euros. Sure it is higher now than a few years ago in terms of euros but in dollars, it has tripled!I think the best investment is real estate! With that said, I don't think everyone should go out and buy a house or office building but referring back to a blog entry this summer "When it Pays to Buy, Buy" there is a time and place to buy real estate.
I have a personal example to share with you. I just love the beach. I have always wanted a place at the beach where my family can spend holidays and lazy weekends. Here in SW Florida, there are some tremendous deals on beachfront condos. Many of these condos demand high rental rates from December through April. If you find the right deal the rent from this period of time may cover you entire ownership costs. So while inflation is rampant and your banker is only paying you 2.5% for your money why not invest in something that pays for itself and you enjoy.
Another example is rental property. While we are in this huge housing slump it is a good time to hunt for bargains where the rent will cover your carry costs. Office space is another option however, one must be particularly careful when considering office and industrial property as the economy is slowing down and many small business will go under and potentially a lot of vacant space may emerge driving down rental rates.My favorite asset type is either bulk lots from builders or complete developments where the developer is in hot water for one reason or another. The key to these deals though is CASH! The reason why investors and companies are in trouble is DEBT! Don't get me wrong, debt is a wonderful tool but it is analogues to a sledge hammer; hit the right spot and mountains will move, hit the wrong spot and you lose your left foot. If investors and companies did not have debt on their books they could afford to hold their assets forever without fear of bankruptcy. Of course the way to make money is to turn your assets over and over making profits along the way. Obviously no sales equal no profits. So if you are long on cash and short on investment real estate, take another look around you for opportunity.
I was just offered bulk lots by one developer for 33% of the development costs. I was sharing this with a friend of mine yesterday and he asked how I know that particular deal is worth going after. My answer was simply, when you can buy something for less, or in this case a lot less, than what it costs to build you will be way ahead of your future competition. I can turn around and sell these bulk lots to another investor a year to two from now for 50% of the cost to build and still make a 50% profit on my investment. Not too shabby when you consider the alternative is a 2% or 3% money market rate.I am always taking questions so feel free to email me dave@keystonellc.net.
What the heck is the Fed Chair thinking? I know, I know, keep the country out of a recession. Yeah, right, like that is going to happen. The good news is my gold stock is way up. The bad news is so is my Canadian bacon.
This country is in so much trouble from the Cheap Credit Party that the only real solution is to turn on the printing presses and print our way out of "real" debt. I knew the hang-over (from that credit party) was going to hurt but man! Now to add insult to injury my savings is worth a lot less this year than it was in just 2005.Thanks Federal Reserve Geniuses. I appreciate being penalized for actually (shock and awe) having a savings account instead of being 10 bazillion in debt.
Don't get me wrong I have a mortgage just like everyone else but I did not go out and buy 10 Miami condos on margin to rack up my debt. The only silver lining is our real estate is now comparatively cheap to foreign investors and tourists.Inflation is now getting ready to leave the earth's orbit ala 1970's style. I can't wait to order my first $100 cup of coffee. Okay, enough complaining and feeling sorry for my country, now on to what are we going to do from here.
The only way I know how to preserve buying power (wealth) is to own hard assets such as gold, real estate or some other object that does not deteriorate over time. Gold is sky high because the dollar is in the toilet not because it has "gone up in value". The price of gold has gone up, not the value. If you don't believe me check out the price of gold in Euros. Sure it is higher now than a few years ago in terms of euros but in dollars, it has tripled!I think the best investment is real estate! With that said, I don't think everyone should go out and buy a house or office building but referring back to a blog entry this summer "When it Pays to Buy, Buy" there is a time and place to buy real estate.
I have a personal example to share with you. I just love the beach. I have always wanted a place at the beach where my family can spend holidays and lazy weekends. Here in SW Florida, there are some tremendous deals on beachfront condos. Many of these condos demand high rental rates from December through April. If you find the right deal the rent from this period of time may cover you entire ownership costs. So while inflation is rampant and your banker is only paying you 2.5% for your money why not invest in something that pays for itself and you enjoy.
Another example is rental property. While we are in this huge housing slump it is a good time to hunt for bargains where the rent will cover your carry costs. Office space is another option however, one must be particularly careful when considering office and industrial property as the economy is slowing down and many small business will go under and potentially a lot of vacant space may emerge driving down rental rates.My favorite asset type is either bulk lots from builders or complete developments where the developer is in hot water for one reason or another. The key to these deals though is CASH! The reason why investors and companies are in trouble is DEBT! Don't get me wrong, debt is a wonderful tool but it is analogues to a sledge hammer; hit the right spot and mountains will move, hit the wrong spot and you lose your left foot. If investors and companies did not have debt on their books they could afford to hold their assets forever without fear of bankruptcy. Of course the way to make money is to turn your assets over and over making profits along the way. Obviously no sales equal no profits. So if you are long on cash and short on investment real estate, take another look around you for opportunity.
I was just offered bulk lots by one developer for 33% of the development costs. I was sharing this with a friend of mine yesterday and he asked how I know that particular deal is worth going after. My answer was simply, when you can buy something for less, or in this case a lot less, than what it costs to build you will be way ahead of your future competition. I can turn around and sell these bulk lots to another investor a year to two from now for 50% of the cost to build and still make a 50% profit on my investment. Not too shabby when you consider the alternative is a 2% or 3% money market rate.I am always taking questions so feel free to email me dave@keystonellc.net.
A Video on Government Spending
http://www.youtube..com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc
I am working on an article about Water Quality permitting in Florida as well as update on SB360, which I hope to publish here soon. Until then enjoy the link above.
I am working on an article about Water Quality permitting in Florida as well as update on SB360, which I hope to publish here soon. Until then enjoy the link above.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Panel Discussion
Today I am in Davie participating on a panel for a Land Use Permitting and Entitlement Course at the Huizenga School of Business and Entrepreneurship at Nova Southeastern.
The class consists of MBA students that are getting a specialization in Real Estate. The focus of this class is the entitlement and permitting process, as well as a better understanding of the roles and relationships between permitting agencies, consultants, the public, and implementing law.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
An expert for every market
I spend most of my days working on real estate deals in one form or another. Sometimes it is a loan being sold to investors, sometimes it is the liquidation of a developer's inventory and on a rare occasion it is a good old fashioned traditional real estate transaction. I want to share one of my secret weapons with you; his name is Mike Timmerman.
Mike and I have known each other for over 10 years and he consistently delivers recommendations based on hard data versus other "experts" that go with the current trend. If you are a regular reader then you know I like Mike and have written about his great talent for making sense of all those real estate numbers. Mike and I have not had a chance to work together much over the last few years but we did have an opportunity last week and that is what I want to tell you about today.
I have a client that needed to know precisely what the market decline rate has been since 2005 for a specific market. I had my own ideas and my client had his own ideas about the market for this type of product. Mike quickly dove into the data and delivered an analysis that, after extensive review, was right on the money. I will say Mike did not give us the answer we were looking for but his insight and mountains of data backing his conclusions were absolutely spot on.
Today it seems as though everyone with a computer is an "expert" analyst and nobody thinks twice about manipulating the data to reach a preconceived conclusion. Fortunately, Mike never got that memo and he works like he has for the last 30 years - letting the data reach the conclusion. That is not to say Mike does not have instinct. In late 2005 Mike presented his analysis at an Urban Land Institute program in Naples where he announced the party was over. Now if he had just looked at sales or permits issued he would not have come to his gloomy conclusion. Mike took it a step further and looked at affordability and a survey of where people closing real estate contracts lived. He found the market had priced most real buyers out of the market place the previous years appreciation rates had reached unsustainable heights. He also found most buyers were from up north, namely Ohio and Michigan. In hind sight Mike called as he saw it and he was correct.
If you have a need for hardcore data analysis and someone to make sense of market you are in, I suggest you contact Mike at mtimmerman@fishkind.com, oh yeah, tell him Dave sent you.
Just in case you are wondering, Mike did not ask me or pay me to write this blog. I cannot help that I am a cheerleader for those I respect and admire.
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