ULI Winter Institute 2009

On January 29, 2008 the Urban Land Institute hosted the 2009 Winter Institute and Pathfinder Awards in Naples, Florida. As the Vice-Chair of the Southwest Florida District Council part of my duties are to produce the Winter Institute program. This year's Winter Institute was the best one I have attended in the last 12 years. We were fortunate enough to have speakers such as the Chief Economist for SunTrust Bank Mr. Greg Miller, Ron Glass founder of workout firm GlassRatner, Florida CFO Ms. Alex Sink and former mayor of Pittsburg Mr. Tom Murphy. I spoke with many that attended the program and the unanimous consensus is the content was timely, informative and useful. Below are a few pictures from the event.

A link to the presentations as well as information on upcoming events can be found at: http://swflorida.uli.org/News/Event%20Presentations.aspx

Florida CFO Alex Sink and Ron Glass of GlassRatner Capital Group

Tom Murphy, former Mayor of Pittsburgh and Dave

Dave and Florida CFO Alex Sink

Ron Glass of GlassRatner and Dave

SunTrust Economist Greg Miller gives a 2009 prediction

Dave with previous Pathfinder Award winners and 2009 winner Nancy Payton of the Florida Wildlife Federation

Attendee's at the standing room only event

SunTrust Economist Greg Miller with Dave and a WI guest


Commissioner Jim Coletta, Dave Farmer and Collier County Planning Commissioner Dave Wolfley

What is a Home Worth?

As long as the moon has been circling the globe the tide has come in and gone out. When the tide comes in it raises all boats. When home prices were going up all real estate went up just like boats in a harbor. Today as the proverbial tide is heading out, the question really is "How deep is the water"? That is, as the tide heads out, have we hit bottom or is there still a ways to go? From where I am standing there is no bottom in site. At the end of the day I think a house is worth what you can do with it.

I was speaking at a ULI program recently and I made a statement there that I will repeat here; just because a home on your street was sold for $25,000 does not mean your home or all of the homes on your street are now worth $25,000. I also stated that I am seeing a correlation between 2005 selling prices (not listing prices mind you) and selling prices today. That correlation is the value today is about 1/3 of the 2005 selling prices. It is not a perfect relationship but I keep seeing it over and over again.
With that said, if you have a home with a mold issue and it cannot be lived in then that home is not worth much. If I can rent out a home for $1,000 net per month then that home is worth considerably more.

A friend of mine was driving though Georgia a few months ago and ran across a home in a remote area that appeared to have been built with expensive materials. My friend shared with me that he thought the house was a terrible waste of money. So what is the value of a remote "expensive" home? Maybe zero. Maybe some. Probably not what was spent to build it. My point is some houses will never be worth their construction cost and no minimum price exists. The bottom line is if a home has utility, it's forward value will be based on that utility.

What is Land Development Consulting?

Many people ask what I do for a living when I meet them as I am sure happens to you. I tell them I am a land development consultant which results in a puzzled look followed by a "huh?".

I briefly explain my background in civil engineering, planning and development to them and I tell them that I use my experience to help those less familiar with the development process. This leads to a sigh of relief from my new friend and a comment such as "oh, so you are a builder?" or "oh, so you are an engineer?".

Okay, yes, I have done both of those things but I offer so much more! More time with your family, more money in the bank and more neighbors happy to see you. Let me explain it this way; my son loves to turn all of the lights on in our house but cannot remember to turn them off. We are trying to teach him to turn lights off when you are not in the room. Much of the time he forgets to turn the lights off even though we remind him all of the time. We have implemented a new strategy in our house to help him remember to turn the lights off - we charge him a quarter for every light he leaves on! We explained to him that electricity costs money and since we are getting charged, he is going to get charged. A few nights ago we took two crisp dollar bills from his piggy bank to pay for the eight lights he had left on up stairs. To say he was upset would be an understatement. He did not want to see his money leave his bank. I am sure it will happen again since he is only six years old, but let's just say he has not left a light on since then and he has even reminded us to shape up!

The purpose of sharing a personal story with you is to convey the point that until something costs YOU money, it really is not very important. A developer will hire an attorney, an engineer and a planner and assume these professionals will tell them all they need to know for a successful project. You have to admit it makes sense. The problem is there are many ways to spend money when developing a project. There are many ways to lose money on a project. Who does it hurt in the long run? The attorney? The engineer? The planner? NO! It is the developer that pays.

What is the incentive for any of these professionals to learn how to not cost you money? A very good (and rare) professional may advise you on a subject within their specific area of expertise such as a title issue, a drainage issue or a zoning issue, but which one is going to warn you (before it is to late) the neighbors will fight the project if you do or don't do something? Which one will tell you why you should avoid asking for too much density in a rezone case? Which one will explain how the timing of a project can mean huge savings?

A land development consultant has been "there" and has spent their own money on unnecessary issues at the direction of a "professional" They have had situations where they were told "don't worry about it" and it cost months of delay at a cost of $25,000 per month. A land development consultant has watched as one professional after another has said "they have to approve this" and then seen the project denied approval.

Can you imagine a football team without a quarterback? There is a lot of talent on the field but without a leader, someone to call the shots, the talent is misused or underutilized. At worst, a land development consultant is an extra layer of review and additional costs. What is so bad about an extra layer of review from within the team? While money is always tight, is an extra $30,000 in land development consulting fees on a $12 million project significant? If that $30,000 in "extra fees" saved you three months of interest carry would it be worth it? You bet. I am here to help those in the development industry and those serving the industry such as banks and investors. Are you unsure if you need my help? Give me a call or email and tell me what you are thinking of doing and I will give you an answer on the spot - no strings attached.

Why make mistakes that can be avoided?

Back in the saddle again

I just got back from the Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting in Miami Beach. It was a very informative week with just about every real estate topic covered in multiple programs.

The three items I found most interesting are:
1) The new stimulus package being talked about in congress will be different this time with no checks going to taxpayers. Instead a hundred or so billion dollars will be offered to the states to speed up the funding of new infrastructure projects. The catch is in order for states to get the money, they will have to match all or a portion of the funds. No match, no funds!

2) It does not matter who is elected President, taxes will have to go up to repay all of the spending our country has been doing since the beginning of the Iraq war.

3) The bad news is the recession will last 12-18 months. The good news is we are about a year into the recession and improvements in our economy's outlook should be clear around next fall.

This financial mess we find ourselves in will lead to structural changes in lending for any type of real estate transaction. What has not changed is our country and the world is getting older. The world is also growing in terms of population. More people means more demand for rooftops. Here in the U.S. I learned we built about 1.2 million too many homes from 2004-2007. Based upon customary absorption models, the U.S. should fill those homes with new immigrants, college graduates and other new households over the next 12-18 months. Keep in mind the absorption rate I just mentioned will be an average across the nation so in some places like Lee County, Florida there is more like a 3 or 4 year supply of vacant homes while in other places (say Texas) there is a shortage of homes.

I do agree with both presidential candidates, our best days are still in front of us. Things will get better, is just not be better by tomorrow.

So that leaves us with a real estate market that appears to be on life support. Going forward, everything old will be new again.

Remember due diligence? Hey knowing what you are buying is cool again! Fundamentals matter! It feels good to be back in the saddle again. My comfort zone is to look at a deal without rushing, crunch the numbers, lower my expected selling price and raise my carry costs then crunch the numbers again. When the analysis shows my conservative numbers still make sense I feel like I am back my horse and riding high. The bucking bull is more exciting, but also much more dangerous.

I personally prefer the old fashioned way of real estate investing where fundamentals are everything and just like a horse, if I take care of it, it will take care of me. Happy Trails to you my friend!

Top 10 reasons how you know it's time to buy

10. Loan officers are going door to door with applications like girl scouts selling cookies

9. Your 10 year old is thinking about buying her own place and moving out

8. Houses are listed as buy one get one free

7. Poor Iraqi's are buying are buying vacation homes in the U.S.

6. Your stimulus check exceeds your 20% down payment

5. Owning a home is cheaper than living in your car

4. Your loan papers say "pay us when you have the money"

3. There are more "for sale" signs on the street than there are houses

2. You can buy a McMansion for a Happy Meal price

1. Even Ed McMahon can afford to buy

Let's Make Hay While The Sun Shines

Remember when everyone was making money hand over fist in the real estate market? Boy the sun was shining then. Now that it is raining cats and dogs in the real estate market, I believe the sun is shining for investors. Sorry to mix my metaphors. I will not go out on a limb and say this is the perfect time to buy because "perfect" means different things to different people. Some investors are looking for income producing properties, and others are looking for an end return on their investment.

With that caveat behind me, I will say this; it is the perfect time to look for/at whatever type of property appeals to you. The market will be flat for some time, so many will want to wait for prices to move up before they buy. I respect that. However, the best properties will be purchased and therefore off of the market first. As prices rise it will be the inferior properties that will be left to choose from. The sellers and developers I am talking to are increasingly willing to deal if you have cash and a quick close. We are emerging from the winter of real estate market cycle and headed into spring. Spring is the time to sew our seed for future harvest. As investors we take on risk, that is just part of the job. That does not mean we need to take on unlimited risk. We can measure risk and take steps to mitigate for present or future risk. If you are concerned that you may buy something too soon, then you may want to take on one or more partners to share that risk with you. Another way to mitigate risk is to only buy when the investment pays for itself in terms of cashflow. The way to make money going forward is to NOT take large risks but a lot of calculated risks.

The market of 2005 is gone forever. It was too good to last and was therefore destined to end. There is nothing wrong with assets that do not double in value every year or two. While the stock market has been trading sideways for the last 6 months I have been buying stocks and selling options against those stocks to lock in a 25% return. In some cases I made 25% and in others I only made 25% while the stock doubled. My point is this; if you protect your principal with risk mitigation, there is nothing wrong with double digit gains. So, while it is raining cats and dogs, let's make hay while the sun shines. I am telling you the future is so bright we will need to wear shades.